On 17 June 2015 – IMO released the 2014 ESOO. This provides updated forecasts of electricity peak demand and sent out electricity for the period 2015/16 to 2024/25, with the prime purpose of setting the Reserve Capacity Target (RCT) for the 2016/17 Capacity Year. This has been set at 4557MW. This represents:
- a 562MW decrease from the 2013 ESOO;
- the capacity in place and under construction will exceed the RCT by 1126MW; and
- by 2024/25 the RCT will be 4828MW which means that no new generation or Demand Side Management (DSM) will be required over the period.
This year’s ESOO has incorporated, for the first time, assumptions around battery storage and has modelled the impact of increasing levels of Solar PV. Key points include:
- there are 160,000 residential PV systems installed at Jan 2014 (17.6% of residential electricity customers);
- PV has reduced the 2014/15 peak by 187MW and moved peak demand to later in the day (3.30-4pm);
- whilst peak demand growth is still growing by 0.8% per annum this is flattening; and
- peak demand for 2014/15 was 3744MW on 5 Jan 2015.